District Demographics
- Posted by ryan on October 27th, 2008 filed in Cities
Rob Goodspeed has an interesting post up looking at District population trends and projecting that by 2014, Washington will no longer be majority black. That this shift would take place has been a foregone conclusion for some time. Washington’s black population has been in free fall for years, so when the city’s white population bottomed out and began growing again, the trend became pretty easy to read. Still, Rob has pinned down the year, and given us some nice charts and interesting analysis, so do have a look.
I’m going to disagree just a bit with a couple of the things he says, however. For instance:
A couple comments about these numbers. First, they show relatively graduate and ongoing demographic shifts, not abrupt change that most seem to assume is happening. Despite massive investments in a tiny majority of the city’s neighborhoods, D.C. only recently stabilized its population, let alone began to add significant population. Second, since 1990 the city has lost 77,958 Blacks but only gained 30,665 Whites.
Now to me, losing or gaining tens of thousands of people in a city of hundreds of thousands of people is dramatic, full stop. He notes that the city has gained 30,000 some whites since 1990, but in fact, all of that has taken place since just 2000. Just as importantly, almost all of that has taken place in a smaller subsection of the city. Wards 1, 2, and 6 have seen intense population change in the past decade.
Rob also adds:
Obviously, when the shift occurs it will have profound effects on the city.
The shift, as a decadal process, has had and will continue to have profound effects on the city, but the changeover in 2014 will mainly have profound effects on headline writers. Locally, the big shift has already happened; Ward 1, for instance, lost its black majority between 1990 and 2000. And the societal stress, if there is to be any, will probably happen immediately after the 2010 Census, when Ward lines have to be redrawn. Back in 1990 nearly 200,000 people lived east of the Anacostia. By 2010, that figure may be below 120,000. It will be impossible to maintain two independent, separate Wards east of the Anacostia. Political power will become firmly rooted around the dense Mid-City area, which will constitute a tectonic shift in District politics. It will be something to observe, I suspect.
(Lots of amazing data for you to play with here.)
October 28th, 2008 at 2:57 am
What is interesting to me is that Goodspeed’s numbers only take into account the District, which is to say District residents. The District currently makes up less than an eighth of the population of the Washington Metropolitan area, a metropolitan area that is currently only about 25% black. As the city is gentrified, are these folks being exported to crappy parts of NoVa and PG?
It also begs a question on the demographic makeup on jobs in DC. Considering that DC imports people for a good portion of its jobs, and these as a whole would be considered among the higher paying jobs, who does the demographic makeup look next to the job demographic makeup? Just thoughts.
October 28th, 2008 at 3:03 am
I ought to clarify that the last sentence of the first paragraph above was of a concern over the negative affects of gentrification, not a commentary on NoVa or PG, or their residents (I’m a PG guy myself!) I’ll reconsider my wording more carefully in the future.
October 28th, 2008 at 8:27 am
The big decline in black population over the past two decades is, in many, ways, just an echo of the big decline in white population before that. It’s suburbanization, and it’s reflected by the rapid growth of majority black suburbs to the east of the District. These households are not, in other words, being exported.
From an economic perspective, I don’t think we should look at the District as importing suburban workers; the integration of the metropolitan economy is too tight for this to be meaningful. In terms of political boundaries, the difference in Arlington and the District is huge. In economic terms, there’s barely a border there.
The highly-paid jobs need a highly educated workforce. The city’s blacks are underrepresented downtown primarily because of gaps in educational attainment. This is an enormous problem, but it’s also a national problem.
I guess I’m saying that the demographic issues are fascinating from a political viewpoint, but from an economic viewpoint the District is almost always the wrong unit of geography to use.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:27 am
That’s a fascinating analysis on the Ward redistribution. In reading Rob’s post, I hadn’t thought about that.
If Wards 7 and 8 were merged, wouldn’t that mean another Ward would get split up to form two? Which Ward do you think would that happen too? Ward 2 always seemed ridiculously large to me, but I doubt you could piece together a ward just out of its eastern half. I suppose you could cut away at parts of Ward 5 or 6.
Although, I just doubt there is the political will to reduce the East of the River vote to one seat. Particularly if the seat was viewed to be going to a gentrifying part of town.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Total speculation, but I would think they’d extend Wards 7 and 8 westward, to include parts of what is now Wards 5 and 6. Wards 1 and 2 would both be squished.
October 28th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Another interesting demographic event that should happen in the next couple years is that Arlington schools will become more than 50% non-hispanic white for the first time since the 1980’s–the percentage had dropped down to almost 40% in the late 90’s.
40% to 50% may not seem like a lot, but try to find another urban or suburban district where white enrollment dropped that low, and then (in the absence of redistricting) rebounded to a majority.
October 28th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
The Metro is the key. I repeat this because it has been and continues to be the key to linking together then District and the inner suburbs into one cohesive economic whole.
In my routines, I don’t think any differently of going into the District or to another inner suburb. It’s all the same to me since I live in walking distance of a Metro station. I doubt I’m the only one who thinks that way.
The effects of the decision to build a Metro rather than a highway system back in the ’60s and ’70s are really being felt. Our region’s economic progress and integration is really in full swing and will continue. If only the highwaymen in the Eisenhower Administration era Congress who wanted to pave over the region were still alive to see what has become of it. They’re probably turning over in their graves anyway. All the better for those of us who live here and get to enjoy a more urban and vibrant (economically and socially) Washington region.
October 28th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
“Total speculation, but I would think they’d extend Wards 7 and 8 westward, to include parts of what is now Wards 5 and 6″
Yikes, I would not be very happy if I were a Near Southeast resident and had to go from being represented by Tommy Wells to being clumped in with Ward 8’s political dysfunction. I doubt there’d be enough new voters in the new sections to overcome the Barry-block.
Although, you never know. Maybe they’d throw their vote to Charlie Wilson or Sandra Seegars, but it’d take a pretty massive turnout of disaffected neo-Ward 8ites to throw out Marion.
Then again, Marion is not the healthiest man in the world, who’s to say he’ll still be around come 2010?
I hate to say ill things about old men, but that man is the cause of so many failed and broken lives that it is a shame that he is in office, let alone cherished by those who were most hurt by his negligence.
October 29th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Reid,
You are absolutely right re: political will and unhappy residents. But it does not matter. By law (the “one person, one vote decision” I think it was Baker v Carr), ward boundaries must be redrawn after every Census for the next election, in this case 2012, and every ward must have roughly the same population. The last round of redrawing the ward boundaries was tough but probably pales in comparison to the angst that those in charge of redrawing the ward boundaries in 2011-2012 will face. Before the 2000 Census, all of Wards 7 and 8 and part of Ward 6 were east of the Anacostia River while all of the neighborhoods north of Georgetown and west of Rock Creek Park were entirely in Ward 3. After the 2000 Census, Ward 6 retreated so that it now lies entirely west of the Anacostia River (Ward 6 it took part of downtown and all of Southwest from Ward 2, which shrunk) while Ward 7 jumped over the Benning Road Bridge to take in the Kingman Park neighborhood. Meanwhile, Ward 4 jumped over Rock Creek Park to take in a healthy chunk of Chevy Chase. As you can imagine, there was outcry from many people east of the Anacostia River while many Chevy Chase residents complained about the switch from Ward 3 to Ward 4. Given population trends, my guess would be that Wards 1, 2, 3 and 6 get smaller and that Ward 7 shifts further east to take in a considerable hunk of the of northeast Capitol Hill, perhaps as far as Lincoln Park.
Phil Mendelson was unlucky enough to draw the assignment of redrawing ward boundaries last time around. He took a lot if heat for the final map, but in the end it did not hurt is electoral prospects. I imagine another councilmember will get the assignment next time around. In the end, of course, Chevy Chase got used to being part of Ward 4 and Kingman Park got used to being part of Ward 7. Eight years on, it would probably be tough to find anyone in either neighborhood who is all that incensed about it.
October 29th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Oops. RG, you’re wrong about the Kingman Park being ok with being part of ward 7. I think they even SUED to stay in ward six about 5 years ago. I have friends who live on western edge of ward 7, and they feel totally isolated from anything ward 7 related. They can’t even legally park anywhere they actually GO, like Eastern Market or Lincoln Park, since they have a ward 7 parking sticker. They’ve yet to actually ever GO to the heart of ward 7, since there isn’t much over there besides neighborhoods, crime, a highway, and vacant lots. I really hope they don’t extend 7 toward Lincoln park, since I live near there! The bulk of people in the eastern park of Cap Hill probably won’t stand for it.
I’ve noticed Shaw has been completely divided into 4 wards, which is never a good thing for a neighborhood. I’d also advocate them being in one ward!
October 29th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
I too live near Lincoln Park and would prefer to remain in Ward 6. I wasn’t saying I liked what will probably happen after 2010,I was just predicting what will probably happen.
My point is that whether people like it or not, the ward boundaries HAVE to be redrawn after each census and they HAVE to have roughly equal populations. That means that wards in the core and western parts of the city will get smaller while those based east of the Anacostia will have to expand to take in territory west of the Anacostia. There is no other way around it, no matter what I and other would prefer. The Supreme Court said so 45 years ago and I cannot imagine a scenario where the Court will overturn one person, one vote.
As for parking stickers, it really makes no sense whatsoever to have them based on political wards — the city should come up with a new system. But no court in the country will accept parking stickers or people’s unhappiness with a new map as reasons to allow a jurisdiction to avoid redrawing political districts after the census.
I agree that many people in Kingman Park remain pretty unhappy about being in Ward 7. I, too would be unhappy to have my neighborhood geographically separated from the rest of the its ward. However, while they sued, note that they did not sue successfully. I would bet that the courts dismissed their suit pretty quickly.
Bottom line, the ward boundaries have to be redrawn before the 2012 election and the end result will make a lot of people, including perhaps me, unhappy. But the District (and every other state and municipality in the country) really has no choice in the matter — the boundaries MUST be redrawn to reflect new census data.
October 30th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Yes I know, but I’m sure a lot of people will push to have ward 7 move south instead of west, and have ward 8 move west to SW. But we’ll see what happens!