Today’s conventional wisdom seems to be that the recent market rally has hit an apex. My assessment is that it has either hit an apex or hasn’t, in which case it will go up or down. But for those attempting to read some meaning into the market, and who are seeing the many predictions that a renewed bear is on the way, I’d point out that the Dow is now back at mid-January levels (a price range that more or less obtained from the mid-October crash until the end of January).
So a good question to ask is: how does the current outlook compare to the outlook at any point during that range? In my view, things look much, much better now. And so, to the extent that market movements make any sense at all, I’d suggest that a major move downward is unlikely in the absence of some unexpected and very bad news. But I’d also suggest that you not make any purchase decisions based on my expectations for medium-term index movements.