High-Speed Rail is Cheap

Like Matt, I love this attack on HSR:

Federal taxpayers can’t afford high-speed rail in California or anywhere else. A Cato essay on high-speed rail points out that the cost of California’s HSR could be $81 billion and a national system could cost $1 trillion. Samuelson is right: the Obama administration’s HSR dreams “represent shortsighted, thoughtless government at its worst.”

Thus, the costs of a true high-speed rail system would be far higher than the costs of a medium-speed system on existing tracks, as envisioned by the Obama administration. To build a 12,800-mile system of high-speed trains would cost close to $1 trillion, based on the costs estimates of the California system. It is unlikely that the nation could afford such a vast expense, particularly since our state and federal governments are already in huge fiscal trouble.

I can only conclude that Cato scholars are wretched managers of their personal financial affairs. To put the above in perspective, it’s like saying that a household with $140,000 in annual income can’t afford to buy a $10,000 car.

America’s infrastructure is already under incredible strain. Road congestion is a significant problem in most of the country’s cities. Airports are stressed as well. Where intercity rail runs at speeds competitive with alternatives, trains are at capacity. And the country’s big transit systems are increasingly jammed. Meanwhile, America’s population will increase by over 100 million people over the next few decades.

We could continue using existing infrastructure while limiting congestion if we used congestion charges, but these would rise to exorbitant levels over time if no new transportation capacity were added. And so the long-term question isn’t whether to build new capacity. It’s what kind of capacity to build.

And once we start considering that choice, rail starts looking pretty good. New roads in large metropolitan areas are extremely expensive, even on the exurban fringe. Land is just worth a lot of money. And for the money, new roadways don’t get you all that much in additional capacity. If you’re going to pay to use the land, you may as well put down infrastructure that can move a lot of people at high speeds. The math in favor of HSR only gets more favorable as you consider things like the emissions costs, impacts on land-use decisions, transportation safety, and so on.

True HSR isn’t going to make financial sense in all situations. It won’t. There’s no need to run a high speed line from Pierre to Spokane via Billings. But it will make a great deal of sense in many situations, and to rule it out on bogus cost grounds or ideological priors is just foolish.

Comments

  1. Joseph says:

    With X dollars, why spend it on HSR and not intra-city public transportation?

    What good is taking HSR somewhere if you then have to rent a car to get to your final destination?

  2. Omri says:

    What good is flying somewhere if you then have to rent a car to get to your final destination? In most of the central US, that’s the only thing you can do at the airport. At least with HSR you can be near *something* you might want to get to.

  3. HSR might work in the Northeast Corridor and maybe, just maybe, for LA-San Diego. It is hard for me to see where there is sufficient density anywhere else.

    I even have an issue with LA-SF. With a little planning, a one way ticket from an LA area airport to a SF area airport on Southwest is $39-$49. The forecast cost of a rail ticket according to the California High Speed Rail authority is $105. Flying takes about 75 minutes from gate to gate; the train takes 2 hours 40 minutes. Multiple airports in the LA and SF regions mean that they may actually be closer to people than will rail stations.

    I can’t think of an empirical transporation modal choice model where those who are now flying would move in large numbers to rail for Southern to Northern California.