David Roberts and Brian Beutler are discussing the Obama energy plan, and as they note, there are some things to like. Best of all is the stringent cap-and-trade program for which permits are auctioned off. That’s a big deal, and if we’re not going to go the carbon tax route, then this is the second best option.

I’m a lot less excited about the billions of dollars promised to research efforts on things like carbon capture and sequestration, or “the next generation of biofuels and fuel delivery infrastructure, accelerating commercial production of plug-in hybrid vehicles, promoting larger-scale renewable energy projects and low-emission coal plants, and making the electricity grid digital.” Not that those wouldn’t be great things. It’s just that 1) if we price carbon correctly, firms will have lots of incentives to do this stuff anyway, without billions in public money. And 2) there are large opportunity costs to spending money on projects for which the payoff is unsure–namely, we can’t spend that money on things NOW that we KNOW will pay off.

Look, it’s very nice to see that Obama mentions planning and mass transit. What he doesn’t do is attach anything remotely reminiscent of a dollar sign to those paragraphs. And that’s a mistake. Next year, federal funding for mass transit and Amtrak combined will total about $3 billion. A mere 2 percent of the $150 billion Obama is talking about spending on research would double the budgets for those programs; that is, small amounts can have big effects. Everything we know about cities with public transit suggests that such systems can substantially reduce per capita carbon outputs. Combining any program to increase the price of carbon with investment in public transit would result in an immediate and tangible reduction in carbon emissions. Of this we can be absolutely sure.

We have to start by picking the low-hanging fruit, people. Take the obvious steps to slow or halt increases in miles driven, and then we can talk about investments in bio-engineered switchgrass ethanol.

Also:  Any effective program for carbon reduction is going to make driving a lot more expensive. Without other transportation options, such programs will probably meet with strong public opposition, and, if implemented, will be hard on the wallets of American consumers. Increasing access to public transportation, then, is vital to facilitating the passage of meaningful emissions legislation, and it will decrease the cost of such legislation.