Wow. These Republican debates just get more and more surreal. At this point, I think you have to feel that Huckabee has a fighting chance, simply because his crazy talk comes off in a somewhat more reasonable manner than everyone else’s crazy talk. But we have to remember that they’re all absolutely, totally nuts.

Let’s go to the prediction markets, shall we? Huckabee now has a clear lead in Iowa, which is reflected in most polls. What’s interesting is that the markets for many of the other early primary states don’t even have Huckabee contracts yet, but in most of those states, the “field” contract has posted respectable gains in the past week. The odds are still against the Arkansan, but there might be some money to be made on Huckabee bets for political traders.

In other news, Obama is threatening to pull within 45 points of Hillary, based largely on a growing lead in Iowa. He lacks momentum elsewhere, however, and I imagine Senator Clinton is feeling anything but nervous.