Change Now or Change Never
- Posted by ryan on May 5th, 2008 filed in Economics
Daniel Hall is doing work:
Geoffrey Styles makes a great observation about the recent run-up in gas prices:
A big part of our problem is that most Americans are still driving cars that were purchased when gasoline was under $1.50/gal., to commute between work and home locations that were chosen when fuel was even cheaper.
He also makes a nice comparison:
As of this week, nominal US retail gasoline prices have gone up by 25% in the last year and by 130% in the last five years. How does that compare to other countries? Well, motorists in the UK are experiencing prices that are now 25% higher than the average of last year, and 42% higher than five years ago, but gas hasn’t been cheap in Europe for more than a generation. Buffered by the strong Euro, gasoline in Germany has increased by a smaller percentage, 19% vs. the 2007 average and 29% over five years.
Hear that? Gas hasn’t been cheap in Europe for more than a generation. Europe’s development path — decisions about land use and urban planning and transit decisions — was determined in an environment with much higher gas prices. Not only are current price increases in Europe smaller in relative terms, but consumers there live within a system that makes it easier absorb the absolute increases as well.
A decade ago, oil cost about $10 per barrel, and gasoline prices were just a smidge above $1 a gallon. Had we, at that time, increased the gasoline tax considerably and used the proceeds to fund automobile alternatives, we would have discouraged the enormous investment in gas-guzzling SUVs, we would have slowed the outward march of development, and we would have laid the groundwork for an alternative, oil-free transportation network. The net effect of such policies would have been to make the current high oil prices much, much less painful.
Obviously, we can’t go back and redo the last ten years. We can and should recognize, however, that demand and supply fundamentals do not bode well for future fuel prices. Moreover, we now know much more about the potential for and the cost of climate change. The future cost of energy and environmental damage is likely to be far more severe than the current pump pain. It is inexcusable that we should repeat the error of the 1990s and fail to lay the groundwork for an oil-free transportation network.
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